Medical Update on CoVid-19 offered as a public service

As a physician with 40 years experience here is where we now stand and what we now know in regards to CoVid-19 understanding that with day 1 and patient zero we had essentially no knowledge of what this virus was capable of.

#1 This one of the most virulent infectious virus in the history of mankind and the worst infectious disease I have seen in 40 years. It is HIGHLY transmittable from person to person. It is bad as Ebola and Plague in the number of people it can infect. Many people feel that the Government and media are over blowing this infection in an effort to scare people for some prejudiced agenda. I can assure you this is NOT true and if anything the Government and Media is underplaying this pandemic in this regard. You hear a lot about the "R" value which is the number of people one person can infect if they have the virus. All public health officials report we want the "R" value to be 1 or less which means one person infects 1 other person or less. I can assure you the "R" value of THIS virus will eventually be proven to be much, much, higher. Dozens, hundreds of people have already been proven to have contracted the virus from 1 person resulting in a massive spread of the infection.

#2 The good news is that for the vast majority of people somewhere around 80% will not get sick from this virus and if they do it will be like the common cold. And as it continues to be reported the vast majority of infected people have no symptoms at all. Again the problem is that unknowingly they spread the infection far and wide and eventually susceptible people contract the virus and end up seriously ill.

#3 The bad news is somewhere around 5-20% of the population is at risk from dying from this virus and those people have either some genetic variant that makes them more susceptible or they are immune deficient for some reason. When they catch the virus they end up in the hospital stressing the health care system. There is no question as the number of infected people rises so will the number in the hospital.

#4 Other good news physicians and scientists are getting much better in reducing the death rate with proper and improved treatment. A major cause of death is cytokine storm which simply is even in patients with a deficient immune system the body's immune response goes overboard and causes generalized organ failure resulting in death. Recent research has shown proper use and timing of steroids and anti-immune drugs, more specifically dexamethasone and Acumed are showing great results. The problem is one of timing. If given too soon or too late neither drug helps as much. It is clear today that Hydrochloroquine does not really work and there are other and better treatments. In addition convalescent plasma transfusion from someone who has recovered from CoVid-19 is showing good results as well. So as treatments improve the death rate comes down but not the hospitalization rate which to me is the qualifying data experts should pay more attention to.

#5 Some scientists and physicians have predicted that every human being in the world is at risk and will eventually be infected with CoVid-19. Until the virus goes through the entire population of the world or we have an effective and safe vaccine there is little we can do to prevent ourselves, our friends, and our family from catching this virus but there are things we can do.

#6 Initially the CDC underplayed the use of masks. They did so out of fear hospitals would run out and be unable to protect doctors and nurses. Everyone is aware if all the doctors and nurses caught the disease and 20% died it would be a major issue. It was a mistake and they have admitted so. But that is water under the bridge. There is no question today that any mask made from any material will significantly reduce the spread and infection rate of CoVid-19. In general current research has clearly shown if a full 60% or higher of the population wears a mask it will reduce the infection by over 60%. If two people are across from each other and talking if both individuals wear a mask the risk of one spreading the infection to the other is less than 5%. No, masks do not 100% solve all the problems but along with washing our hands and not touching our faces it is the absolute best thing we can do to protect ourselves and others today. As an additional barrier that poses no risk, I recommend using a coffee filter within any mask you choose. It can't hurt.

#7 A word about testing. Testing is important but only so far as we can identify the people who have been in contact with the infected person and then isolating or quarantining those individuals for 14 days until the danger passes. Unfortunately there is no State in the Union that has the public health infrastructure and the bodies to do all this contact tracing and follow up. The only Country in the world that did was South Korea and only because they were scared to death by SARS 1(CoVid-19 is SARS 2)and subsequently put a robust public health system in place specifically to do contact tracing and quarantine. Testing won't help that much until we have enough people to contact trace exposed individuals and exposed individuals or infected individuals cooperating with public health mandates.

#7 Eventually the one thing that will stop this pandemic will be a vaccine. I support and wish well those labs and companies rushing to bring one to market and want them to succeed. If they can get it done by the end of the year it will be a miracle. I have to say however that I am concerned it can be done that quickly as issues of safety, effectiveness, and ability for mass production are questions that must be answered prior to using it on the public in mass quantities. In my medical career I have seen over a dozen miracle medicines pulled off the market after a few months or year because once used across the country those miracle medicines were killing and harming people and we did not discover that in the initial trials. Don't forget no treatment, no vaccine, no mask is 100% perfect. But what we have today is the best we can hope for.